Sub-ticket of PLUTO-134 Supabase Disk-IO budget alert (2026-06-15) disposition: reads clean (99.96% cached). Two analyses diverge on write driver — (1) */2 rate-spike cron churn vs (2) one-time Jun-14 PLUTO-128/130 DDL burst + pg_dump catalog walks. Discriminator = IO graph shape (spike=one-time self-clearing; plateau=cron lever PLUTO-67). GATED on Elazar interval ruling if plateau. No compute upgrade warranted. · pluto